Maths of the Day

The Dual Billionaire Theory - March 2007

Anything Manchester United can do, Liverpool FC can do twice as well. Got an American owner? Liverpool have got two. And luckily for Reds fans, Tom Hicks and George Gillett are adamant that they are going to push ahead with the new Liverpool FC stadium plans.

"We're pragmatists," said Hicks, "We realise that to earn more millions we need to get more people into that new ground. We think big, so we want it TWICE as big. And I'm talking real fans - hard working executives who take time off from their gruelling jet-set wealth-making schedules to assertively gulp down Dom Perignon and eat lobster with their cronies, none of your fly-by-night prawn sandwich brigade, milquetoast family men who might miss a match if their kids are sick or pathetically skint teenagers."

But when they approached the local council with their plans to double the ground capacity they were told of the intricacies of English planning law.
"Planning law, schmanning shmaw!" shouts Gillett. So they jotted down their ideas on the back of a beermat:
* "Underground executive boxes. You won't see any live action but at least you'll get away from the ground fast before the end of a turgid nil-nil in midwinter."
* "Hot air ballons in the image of Bill Paisley and Bob Shankley, carrying executive boxes. You can move your position and drop flour bombs on Goodison Park (the the so-called "council" will probably frown on that)"
* "Space stations carrying executive boxes. We hope to mark out the moon as Liverpool FC hotspot. We'll get Rick Parry to sort it out."

But one of their most outlandish schemes is to entice more local people along to the ground. With affordable ticket pricing?
"Heck no!" says Hicks, "we plan to put leaflets through people's letterboxes explaining How to Become A Milionaire. Then they'll soon be able to afford to come and see the team on a regular basis. Creating a millionaire mindset is what urban regeneration is all about."

Is everyone at the club as excited as they are?

"Heck, yes! Rafa is so excited he spends all his time on the internet looking at cheap flights to Spain. He must be keen to get his family over to come and look at our plans. And Rick Parry's so thrilled with us his hair has started falling out."

The Stauntonian Theory of Possibilities - February 2007

Football, like life, is all about possibilities. About finding a route and following it. But what if you're good at lots of different things? Which path should you choose?.

It's a problem currently facing Irish fooball supremo Stan "Stephen" Staunton. This football polymath is equally good at various activities, such as:

1) throwing or kicking water bottles
2) shouting and screaming at the fourth official
3) Going quiet at press conferences and interviews
4) Getting a round in at FAI events

There are other activities he's also tried a couple of times:
5) Coaching the players
6) Picking a team
7) Trying to analyse and solve tactical problems

His wise old assistant SIr Bobby Robson says "Stephen has a special talent" . He thinks Staunton will eventually end up as one of a new breed of special teams coaches, solely responsible for screeching obscenities into the fourth offical's face late in a game with the team trailing.

As for Staunton, his football philosphy can be summed up in a simple equation:

Football = Lads+Fire+Passion+Guts+arresting all journalists - talking - tactics

Q: What are the chances of the Football Association of Ireland dropping a big redundancy package from a tree and it landing on Staunton?

Watford's Warchest Millions - January 2007

Now that they have sold Ashley Young, their best player, Watford FC are already planning ahead for next season conflicts, when they will launch an all out assault on the Championship with the division's biggest football war chest - and the most original young battlefield leader in modern football. Young boss Aidy Boothroyd (who since the middle of the 2005/6 season will only speak to the press in the form of haiku poetry) is a zen master of modern battlefield tactics:

"Confuse opponents
Spend no money on players
Leave them wondering"

Now that the club's economic strategy is being controlled by some financial planning software recently downloaded from the internet by the club's accountant, the money from the Young transfer has been put in the football warchest and hidden. Boothroyd insists it was always his intention to treat this year like guerilla warfare - get into the premiership, do a job and get out ASAP.

"Stress the positive -
Going to a better place,
Not relegation"

Add that money to the two £9million parachute payments they'll get for relegation this year and Watford will be a force to be reckoned with. When they drop in on the Championship next season, the other teams won't know what's hit them.

"Thirty million
Nearly enough for two teams
Of journeymen pros"

The Curbishley Trajectory and the Two Manager Velocity Equation - December 2006

Alan Curbishley, known as being one of England's more cerebral managers, had it all worked out. He had plotted the slow but steady trajectory of his Charlton project and had foreseen at what point it would reach its natural limit and all fall to pieces. Luckily for him he knew that the England job would soon be coming up for grabs.

"Imagine that the Charlton job is a WWII era rocket, like the V2 say, and the England job is a massive Saturn V. All I had to do was predict the fast speed of the England job as it left the reality of Earth, parachute down into it and take off into the stratosphere (followed, of course, by my inevitable but patriotic destruction)."

Unfortunately for Curbishley, he hadn't got his sums quite right.

"Amusingly, I hadn't realised that the launch date for the England job was put forward and that Steve McLaren was already taken off on his mission to the outer realms of believability. Then I landed backwards into an old biplane called West Ham, recently vacated by Pards, and I am currently plummeting towards the ground and a crash landing."

Bizarrely, Alan Pardew had hitched a ride on a broken piece of fuselage from Curbishley's broken Charlton project.

"The bookies are wondering which of us will hit the ground first. When two managers are falling simultaneously, their velocity depends on how much board backing there is behind them and how weighed down they are by overpaid Argentinian World Cup stars plus the intense media pressure as you hurtle to your doom. It's nice to be back."

Leeds United and the Search for Micron Approval Rating - November 2006

Leeds United have always enjoyed a low public approval rating. It's part of what makes them who they are. But once Ken Bates took over the club, public sympathy for the whites plummeted to an all time low - a number so small that only the world's most powerful electron micrsocopes could detect it.

For a while now this public approval rating could only bee seen in certain conditions. However, now that Dennis Wise has taken over as manager, this figure has reached such minuscule proportions that it has pretty much disappeared.

Experts are wondering at the logic. What was Bates playing at? Was he trying to manufacture the exertion of such huge forces on the club's approval rating that its public image was forced through a black hole?

Bates scoffs at the critics:

"I don't care that people hate us. Hatred is a valuable brand in the 21st Century. But that's not all. They are just jealous of our unique selling point. You see, I discovered some years ago that Leeds are probably the only big club in Europe you can write on a calculator - albeit one of those big models from the late 70s. Tap in the magic numbers 50337, then turn the calculator upside down. It spells LEEDS. Fans will soon learn that you can't get that sort of electronic adding machine amusement from Manchester United or Chelsea."

West Ham and the Mirror Universe Theory - October 2006

Ever since the Premier League's inception, most football fans have believed that there are countless parallel universes out there (it's helped them stay sane). And from the beginning of this season mathematicians and scientists, puzzled over West Ham's loss of form, have discussed the possibility that in a mirror universe the East Londoners are a dominant force in British football. Which leads one to ask the obvious question, how many Alan Pardews might possibly exist? And are any of them any good?

But now it appears that the West Ham fans have sorted out the confusion, by their recent exclamation that "there's only one Alan Pardew!" It's good news for the beleagured Hammers boss:

"It's a relief to know that I'm the only Alan Pardew. What with new owners probably coming in soon, the last thing I want is some Alan Pardew from another plane of reality swanking in from the 4th dimension or whatever and nicking my job. But, as usual, the Hammers fans know the score, and I'm happy with that."

Pardew hopes to be able to utilise wormhole theory to move up the league quickly and plans to discuss the technicalities with Hammers supporters. "The fans understand," smiled Pardew.

David Beckham/The Exponential Decay of a Superstar - September 2006

The slow decline of a superstar is inevitably tinged with sadness - like us, he superstar doesn't realise he's seen his peak until it's already far in the distance. It's to do with exponential decay. You can try to fight it but once you start going down, that's it.

But David Beckham doesn't see it that way.

"I'm not finished. I'm just starting."

Is this a message to Steve McClaren?

"No, it's to all the big advertising firms out there. Tell them David Beckham is still number one when it comes to selling products to a wide range of social categories."

But fans want to know what his best position is.

'"I see myself as a lightening conductor for brand awareness - perfumes, sunglasses, shoes. Anything really. As long as it doesn't hurt the rain forests or dolphins."

Was he used to his full potential during the World Cup?

"Not really. I could have done more advertising for shaving products. That's what the focus groups were crying out for."

What role does he see for himself at the end of this season?

"Possibly in a big budget cop movie with lots of product placement and me as a sensitive leader type who's very patriotic.

Despite his optimism, Beckham can't understand why the press have it in for him.

"You see, I think only Americans really understand the Beckham brand. As many film people have told me, my story is an amazing one and deserves a bigger audience. And all this time I've kept me feet on the ground. Stayed true to my roots. For instance, my best mate, Tom Cruise, is just a normal bloke. The guy he plays in his first film, Risky Business - that could have been me when I was young. Or maybe Gary Neville, at any rate."

Random Chaos at Middlesborough - August 2006

Football experts around the world are still trying to work out the mystery of the Middlesborough FC's strangely random set of results so far this season. Losing to Reading? Beating Chelsea? What's going on?

The key is the new approach by Boro boss Gareth Southgate. Probably the most new wave manager currently working in Britain, Southgate is a man whose anti-establishment image has been carefully crafted for years. But he is still famous for one moment of madness during Euro96.

'"I remember it so clearly. I got onstage with the Sex Pistols at their reunion gig at Finsbury Park and declined to tell them they had sold out punk's ideals. It still haunts me to this day."

Southgate is still a believer in the philosophy of punk, however, and tries to instill into his side the importance of randomness.

"I explain to them how the Clash lost their spontaneity when they went into the studio with producer Sandy Pearlman and recorded the over-worked and fussy Give 'Em Enough Rope. A good football team is like the Clash first album - simple, hard-hitting and with enough chaotic random elements to keep the punters interested.

"We try to do the opposite of what people expect, to keep them on their toes. No-one knows which Middlesborough will take the pitch, least of all me. I'm pretty vacant. And I don't care."

The Uncertainty Priniciple - August 2006

The Uncertainty Principle states that it's impossible to predict with absolute certainty the exact position your team will finish. As a result, regardless of the evidence of the previous season or seasons, fans will turn up in August believing that "this could be our year." There is a sense that "anything can happen" due to the fact that "It's a marathon, not a sprint." We are, at this stage, in a world of crazy possibilities* - for instance, this might be Newcastle United's year to win the Premiership (OK, bad example).

If fans were objective external observers they would probably stop watching their team and take up another more predictable hobby, such as trying to guess when a giant asteroid will hit the earth. However, most fans suffer from a brain sickness called Early Season Optimism, which makes them see the world in a different way. Reality shifts. So to an external observer the fan supports a no-hoper side who will probably get relegated, in his mind he is part of ____ _____'s [insert manager's name] _____ and ____ [insert team colours] army marching on the palace of success and taking it by storm.

'* Some things are exempt from the Uncertainty Principle, such as Spurs not quite living up to their potential or Sir Alex Ferguson losing his temper about something.

Caution and the Sideways Ball Function - May 2006

Sven Goran Eriksson doesn't believe in shouting or getting mad with his players. He is a practical man who instead utilises modern technology in order to take pressure off his players.

"A cousin of Tord Grip has developed telepathic mind power ear pieces which allow me to get inside the heads of the players and smash any attempt they might have for off-the-cuff creative things - which could, as everyone knows, lead to mistakes. Which leads to pressure. Pressure is not good."

Caution is an integral part of the modern game. England didn't achieve its hard-won record of respectable mediocrity in World Cups by being reckless.

"If we appear solid and capable but still get knocked out then everyone is happy and we can still be home by the end of Wimbledon (come on Tiger Tim! I hope his shoulder is OK). Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho have said they don't want their players getting too excited. If I get them all back in time fo pre-match training then I will be safe.

"If we do win the cup then the tabloids won't leave me alone. I will have to do things like DVD specials and lots of interviews. And my assistant Steve McClaren has intimated that such success will not be appreciated. That is too much pressure on him.

The O'Leary Fluctuation - April 2006

The O'Leary Fluctuation follows a classic wave pattern of football management - ever decreasing crests of success followed by deeper troughs of failure, then a loud smash on the rocks of hubris and eventually washed up on the beach of mediocrity. What makes O'Leary interesting is that his fluctuation seems to be caused by the pressure of success - he only does well when he's expected to do badly. "A manager can't be expected to be great all the time," says O'Leary. "Work/life balance is all-important and you need time to unwind - lying chilling with your mates in a TV studio. You know, I really miss rambling on in front of a camera during international tournaments. It's not the same rambling on in the dressing room. No one seems to listen to me there." The only way of breaking free of the O'Leary Fluctuation is by slow incremental progress, like say Alan Curbishley at Charlton. But this is not the O'Leary way. "Like I said to my agent when the Leeds United On Trial book came out, it's death or glory. Bestseller or remainder bin. You can still get it on Amazon, by the way. Get some for Easter presents. Buy it for your friends." So how does he propose to turn his fortunes around? "I'm thinking of another book I'm No Villain. The proposal is with a few publishers at the moment. I'll let you know - hey do you have any friends in the biz who might want to take a look at it? I really spill the beans about Lee Hendry's dress sense ...no? Oh well, not to worry."

Wrong Division - March 2006

2004/5 - A team has 46 games. They are spaced at intervals of around a five days apart. Each games contains 90 minutes. If the team wins a game it gets 3 points. How many games can the team go without losing before the manager his hailed as being one of the greats of football?

2005/6 - A team has 38 games. They are spaced at intervals of around a week apart. Each games contains 90 minutes. If the team wins a game it gets 3 points. How many games can the team go without winning before the manager leaves his clothes on a beach and wades into the sea, never to be seen again? To get the answers you need to use what's called Wrong Division. Take the number of points accumulated by the team over the two seasons (in Sunderland's case 94 and, let's say around 12), divide it by two and this will be the average total they'd get in a magic parallel universe division that lies between the Premiership and the Championship and can only be accessed via an MDF cupboard in a backroom at the Stadium of Light.

Charting the Football Pie - February 2006

The amount of the football pie a club can offer to new talent is dependent on the distance between where they are and what they can get away with multiplied by the volume of the owner's bank vault. An example is that of young Nigerian hotshot John Obi Mikel. Mikel agreed to a contract at Manchester United, his favourite club since birth. Then something changed. "I woke up in the middle of the night to find Peter Kenyon and Jose Mourinho of Chelsea dressed up as large sacks of cash, dancing around my bedroom singing 'Money, Money Money' by Abba. I presumed I was dreaming but they assured me that they were really there and simply 'monitoring developments' in my deal with United. Now I'm really confused. What could it mean?"

It's made more complicated by the fact that Manchester United will not be offering a huge piece of the football pie to Mikel - it's more of a mince pie wih an old sixpence in the middle. Peter Kenyon on the other hand has baked a huge organic money pie which would last for ages as long as it's kept in the fridge. Mikel has subsequently discovered that in fact he has been a Chelsea fan since birth and that he only signed for Man Utd because he was scared of Gary Neville.

"It's his moustache, and the way he kisses his badge a lot that intimidated me," squeaked the youngster. In a desperate throw of the dice Fergie is now offering a used VHS of United's treble winning season of 1999, some bits of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's old ligaments that he no longer needs and two tickets to the 2006 FA Cup Final at Wembley, accompanied by Sir Bobby Charlton (though if it takes place in Cardiff then Sir Bobby is busy). Now Sepp Blatter has smelt the football pies and is coming round to see what's going on. Sir Alex will be hoping that he takes away some of Chelsea's pie and bans Peter Kenyon from the kitchen.

Urban Regeneration - January 2006

Team A is a very good team that plays pretty football. They play in a 38000 seater stadium and have two great players, called Patrick and Thierry. Everyone is happy, especially Arsene.

Then some men in suits do some sums and decide that if they build a new 60000 seater stadium down the road they (the men in suits) will get lots of extra large sacks of money.

They talk to some other men in suits and decide to call their idea Urban Regeneration. Then Patrick leaves and Team A aren't as good any more. Their shirts go a funny colour and their football isn't quite as pretty either. Suddenly the sums don't seem to add up.

Q1: If Thierry leaves, how long will it be before younger fans start buying blue shirts and calling themselves 'Chelsea supporters'.

Q2: How many times will the new stadium have to be half empty before the men in suits who did the sums start hitting each other with empty bags of money?

Q3: How many seasons of mid table medicotry and plucky Carling Cup runs will it take before Arsene becomes manager of Japan?

Q4: Pst! Wanna buy a season ticket, mate?

World Cup Random Ball Picking Generator - December 2005

FIFA guru Sepp Blatter is always amazed at the results that pop out from his Great Big World Cup Random Ball-Picking Generator.

"Every four years I conduct this experiment and it always throws up mad results," says Sepp, chuckling strangely. And it's true - some of the big teams hardly ever meet each other at World Cup finals, whereas England will always play Germany or Argentina at some point.

"Who would have thought that Brazil and Germany would never have met before in a World Cup until the 2002 final," laughs Sepp, nudging Franz Beckenbauer in the ribs. Although there are many permutations that could result from Sepp's Big Draw, he tries to make sure there are some constant factors.

"There's got to be Pele and hopefully a pretty girl with big teeth floating about on stage." Fortunately, Sepp has a secret weapon - his Special Improbability Machine.

"Hey, you idiot!" he starts shouting at Lothar Matthaus, who has come to help out. "I thought I told you to plug the microwave in. How is Pele supposed to know which balls to pull out?" And then he laughs again.

Fergusonian Mechanics - November 2005

Here is an interesting law known to many experts over the years but made public by the discovery in 2002 of a small particle known as a 'holding midfield player' in the England World Cup team. It describes how these tiny objects behave and forms part of the larger theory known as "Fergusonian mechanics", in which some as yet unexplained force influences the long term behaviour of midfield players.

With holding midfield players, it's impossible to say where exactly they are on the pitch or what they're actually doing - all you can do is give them a probability of being in the right place at the right time and being able to stop opposition attacks. Once a holding midfield player is observed it starts to behave differently (ie. play badly).

In Fergusonian mechanics, the problem is that as soon as you try to 'praise' the particle/player, it starts to disappear. So after Pele described Nicky Butt as the best in the world during the 2002 World Cup he gradually began to get smaller and smaller until this season when he vanished completely (ie. moved to Birmingham City).

This equation is related, but not identical, to the Scholesian Law of disappearing deep-lying strikers/attacking midfielders

Random Form - October 2005

Team A beats team B, who thrashed team C, who beat team D, who thwacked team A. Team E goes on a run of three straight wins before losing at home to team F. Team F are expected to beat team G, also at home, but lose. Team G are then play-off favourites but lose to struggling team H and team I. Teams J, K, L and M are without a win for a while but then all grab points. Then everybody beats everybody else. Then they all lose. Then it's a draw.

Q1: Is The Championship is the most exiciting league in the world?

Q2: What is the ratio of midfield battlers to skilled forwards?

Q3: Who has hidden the form book?

Q4: Can you remember who it is you support?

Q5: Isn't it true that anything involving both Ken Bates and Brian Mawhinney has to be great?

Wengerian Triangles - September 2005

Geometry helps us understand how football works. For instance, how interesting will this season's Premiership be? It's easy enough to find out, using a Wengerian triangle (based on the proportions of the Arsenal manager's nose). You simply add together the stats of the previous two seasons, fall asleep and it will come to you.

This triangle also accurately reflects the dominance of the Big Three and when it is placed into a pie chart it represents the different amounts of press coverage the Big Three get compared to the rest of football. These charts show us that, left to its own devices, football will be eaten by itself, leaving just the big clubs to rule the Earth.

But it will all be fine, because there'll be loads of exciting and glamorous players to watch on telly.

Fergie's Last Theorem

Scottish mathematician Sir Alex Ferguson has for years been working towards a unified conspiracy theory of everything. While Carlos Quieros prepares the team for the new season, Fergie spends his time in his 'thinking' room, trying to further unravel the complex mysteries that surround him.

In what is possibly his final season at Manchester United (the club formed by Sir Isaac Newton Heath) he has come clean on his ultimate goal - to prove to everyone that everyone is out to get him. Fergie's Last Theorem reveals the working of a brilliant but troubled mind. He feels he has had success at Manchester United despite the massive forces marshalled against him and, in an open letter to the United Nations, has outlined 10 supposedly unconnected strands that are part of some kind of evil plot.

1. UEFA... "don't want United to do well"
2. FA... "trying to scupper their chances"
3. David Dein... "Arsenal get preferential treatment"
4. Chelsea... "Unsettling Rio"
5. Match officials... "never give us penalties"
6. Keano's dog... "briefing against me. Wees on carpet"
7. Arsene Wenger... "Head of Opus Dei"
8. Fifa... "hate us"
9. Rock of Gibraltar... "Trojan horse"
10. David Beckham's sarong... "Gave me high blood pressure"

Unfortunately, the list of supposedly connected things is so long that so far anyone who has tried to decipher what Sir Alex is on about has fallen into a deep sleep before he has had a chance to finish. Which proves Fergie's theory. "The fact that everyone falls asleep proves that they're all in on it!" he shouts, while climbing up the side of the Empire State Building carrying a beautiful young woman in his arms. Meanwhile, United's new bosses respond by gently ushering Sir Alex towards a padded bath chair and drafting job adverts on their home computers.

The Mathematics of Rumours - July 2005

The sun may be shining, but for some unfortunate people, such as the football agent, summer isn't quite such a happy time. The kids' Eton school fees are due, finance is needed for his new boat, he needs to buy expensive watches for everybody he knows, his car needs upgrading, his third house in France needs some renovation work, his pet poodle is demanding plastic surgery and if he doesn't get the latest solid gold suit by Luigi Yamanato he will simply explode with unhappiness!

Agents are the unsung heroes of the game, beavering away in the background to try and sort out deals so that you and I can get the great players we want for our team. And just like those lawyers you see on TV adverts, if the deal doesn't go through the agent won't get paid.

But there is hope. Luckily, the agent can sort it all out for the price of a five minute call on their mobile and a trip down to Oddbins. He rings the sports journalist. The journalist is desparate too - he needs a crate of limited edition Highland malt whisky to get him through until the end of the month and he also needs to fill some of the sports pages with exciting gossip about unsettled players. The agent can give it to him. Once the agent's rumour apppears in the papers it will most likely spark off a tasty bidding war. Everyone is happy. The journo wins an investigative award.

And the poodle gets its nose job.

1 is Greater Than 3 - June 2005

In football, maths sometimes gets turned on its head. That's why, for AC Milan, 1 is greater than 3.

"Our football is designed to protect a one goal lead. When my players were foolish enough to score three, they had ruined my plan and turned their back on the traditions of this great club," said disconsolate Milan boss Carlo Ancelotti.

"Luckily for me we have a scapegoat in Hernan Crespo. As a hot-headed Argentinan he cannot be expected to undertand the strict yet beautiful philosophy that underpins Italian football in which no goals are great, one goal is good, three goals are bad."

Skipper Paolo Maldini agrees. "After scoring my goal I had been looking forward to spending the rest of the game in my armchair flicking through the other TV channels to see what was on. Maybe catching a bit of Celebrity Love Island and checking my investment portfolio or phoning friends. In other words, doing what I normally do at a Champions League final. Crespo's blundering meant that I had to start running around again. Do you know I am nearly 40, even though I look much younger?"

As the Dutch philosopher Jaap Stam would say, "It's relaxing to work hard, but hard work relaxing."

The Golden Merseybeat Percentage - May 2005

While Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho is left to ponder over a disappointing two-trophy season that had once promised so much, his arch rival Rafael Benitez can offer some words of advice. Chelsea's team may have contained some of the world's best players (plus Dider Drogba and Mateja Kezman) but it was essentially lacking in one department.

"It's something I call the Golden Merseybeat Percentage," says Benitez. "When you think of the great teams of the past, there's one thing they all have in common. 18.18181818% of the side must be from the same city as the Beatles. Rivelino was a Scouser, Puskas was a Scouser, even Maradona. OK, so Cruyff was more from the general Wirral area, but you get my point. Scousers are vital. Especially when your team is from Liverpool."

In the Champions League semi the pretty passing of Cockney-heavy Chelsea was no match for the Liverpudlian fervour of the two Liverpudlians. The special bond that exists between Jamie Carragher and Steven Gerard, the two Liverpudlians in the Liverpool side, is so strong that it has formed a force field that can literally hypnotise the opposition. "Mourinho should get himself at least one Scouser!" chuckled a slurring Benitez, while trying to hold several outsized bottles of fizzy wine.